Alassane Ouattara is the overwhelming favourite to secure a fourth term as Ivory Coast holds presidential poll today, a task facilitated by the absence of several key opposition figures.
Ouattara, 83, has wielded power in the world’s top cocoa producer since 2011 when the country began reasserting itself as a West African economic powerhouse.
“We want a knockout blow,” chorused his allies as they target a decisive win in the first round and avoid a run-off.
Ouattara came to power in the throes of a bloody crisis following the 2010-2011 contest that claimed more than 3,000 lives in clashes between his supporters and those of Gbagbo, who ruled for a decade.
Turnout will be a crucial issue today, with some 9million voters called to cast their ballots.
In the north, where most people are of the Malinke ethnicity, strongly backing Ouattara, his RHDP will be hoping to rack up scores of 90 per cent and more on the back of a strong participation rate.
The road back to the presidential palace seems clear, with former president and rival, Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam both barred from standing.
The Constitutional Council did green-light for opposition candidates but eliminated Gbagbo and Thiam on the grounds that they had been removed from the electoral roll.
Thiam fell afoul of nationality-related legal issues stemming from his acquiring French citizenship, and Gbagbo was excluded for a criminal conviction. Their enforced absence only adds to a tense political climate.
Southern and western regions, home to ethnic groups historically pro-PDCI or pro-Gbagbo could avoid the poll owing to lack of voting instructions from their leaders.
“Nothing will make me vote. My candidate is not on the list; and none of them represents my ideas,” complained Emile Kouadio in Yopougon, an Abidjan district which remains overwhelmingly pro-Gbagbo.
“The absence of the two main (banned) opponents will demobilise a significant portion of the electorate. And so far, we haven’t seen a significant shift behind a candidate,” said William Assanvo, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
The government is highlighting a record showing several years of strong economic growth in a country with rich mineral resources, which became an oil and gas producer in the 2020s, as well as a security situation largely under control despite jihadists’ threats on its borders with Burkina Faso and Mali.
Critics deplore the fact that the undisputed growth has only benefitted a small portion of the population and has accompanied a spiralling cost of living.
Meanwhile, the hope for post-2010-2011 national reconciliation is still not wholly achieved.
Banned rallies
An Ivory Coast court on Tuesday sentenced 32 people to three years in prison for participating in banned demonstrations this month.
The convictions came as the West African country’s two main opposition parties called on supporters to demonstrate to denounce the exclusion of their leaders, Laurent Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam.
They are seeking to oust Ouattara, who is seeking a fourth term.
The protesters were sentenced on charges of “disturbing public order” and “assembling on public roadways.” Last week, 30 other protesters received the same sentence.
Authorities banned the demonstrations, citing the risk of public disorder.
About 700 people have been arrested across the country for participating in banned marches or blockades, with public prosecutor, Oumar Braman Kone claiming that some protests amounted to “acts of terrorism.”
“The freedom to demonstrate cannot be confused with disorder,” he said on Tuesday at the Abidjan court as he requested three-year prison sentences.
The defence cited lack of evidence of disturbances, while all the defendants denied participating in the October 11 demonstration in Abidjan, which was quickly dispersed with teargas.
Defence lawyers said they would appeal.
For the past week, roadblocks and attempted marches have been staged in several cities, mostly in former opposition strongholds in the south and west.
Three people have died across the country: two protesters and a police officer.
On Monday, a building of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) was set on fire in the capital, Yamoussoukro.
“The state is taking preventive security measures to avoid electoral violence. But the best way to have peaceful polls is to organise inclusive elections,” AFP quoted a political analyst, Geoffroy Kouao as saying.
Four opposition candidates are running in the presidential election, challenging incumbent President Ouattara. First is Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, 76, a former First Lady. Her political comeback follows an amnesty granted her in 2018, having served a seven-year prison sentence for crimes related to the bloody 2010-2011 crisis and divorcing her husband, civically and politically.
The “Iron Lady” has not significantly modified her positions – she has toned down her anti-French rhetoric but maintains her anti-imperialist beliefs.
Her programme rests on three pillars: reconciliation, transformation of raw materials and diplomatic sovereignty. For the anti-western juntas in the Sahel region, Gbagbo said, “We pray for their success,” without rejecting Ivory Coast’s current partners or the idea of “living self-sufficiently.”
A former pro-Gbagbo Young Patriots leader, Charles Ble Goude, has remained her loyal supporter, accompanying her on a close-quarter campaign around the country.
The second on the list is Jean-Louis Billon, 60. His reputation as Ivory Coast’s richest man is debatable, but he is the chief executive officer of the agribusiness, Sifca. He is without doubt the largest private employer.
The businessman of Franco-Ivorian descent has made no secret of his presidential ambitions, speaking about his plans openly since 2021 and earning a slap on the wrist from the largest opposition party, of which he is a member – the Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI).
Despite Tidjane Thiam becoming PDCI leader in late 2023, Billon launched his own campaign without party endorsement.
With Thiam out of the race, Billon is hoping for a share of the PDCI vote despite party calls not to support him.
A self-proclaimed liberal, Billon served as commerce minister under Ouattara from 2011-2018. He has hedged his bets on private sector growth and reform of the informal sector to increase employment.
Ahoua Don Mello, 67, a communist with Russian sympathies, is third on the list.
Mello initially ran as a “precautionary” candidate in case his mentor, Laurent Gbagbo, could not – a scenario that has become reality.
Having failed to secure the support of Gbagbo’s African Peoples’ Party – Ivory Coast (PPA-CI), the civil engineer is campaigning as an independent candidate.
Known for his impeccable Mao-collar suits, Don Mello espouses sovereign, communist policies.
His programme focuses on economic decentralisation, sovereignty at all levels and a pan-Africanism that holds the Sahel juntas in a favourable light.
He wants to open up rural areas and increase local processing of raw materials, starting with cacao, which Ivory Coast is the world’s top producer.
Calling for an exit from the CFA franc and slamming the current government’s debt, the secretary-general of the BRICS Alliance does not conceal his Russian sympathies.
The leftwing vote hangs in the balance between him and Simone Ehivet Gbagbo.
Henriette Lagou, 66, moderate centrist, is the last on the list. Lagou, who briefly served as family minister in the 2000s, ran for president in 2015 and gained 0.89 per cent of the votes.
Her success in managing to validate her candidacy this time around has elicited surprise.
The candidate wants to launch a national reconciliation dialogue and increase the number of Ivorian health care centres and schools.
“You can build factories all you want, but without peace, there is no development,” a campaign member said, comparing her with Liberia’s first elected woman president, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.
